Weekly Trading News: April 20–24, 2026
The US data is likely to point towards a gradual cooling in both consumer demand and labor market tightness, reinforcing the soft–landing narrative. In the UK, inflation continues to ease, though not decisively enough to shift policy expectations. Overall, markets remain caught between resilience and slowdown, with central banks still lacking clear catalysts for aggressive policy adjustments.
USD: Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
April 21, 15:30 MT time
Following a stronger-than-expected print of 0.6%, US retail sales are likely to moderate, reflecting a gradual cooling in consumer momentum rather than a sharp deterioration. Spending remains supported by a resilient labor market, but fading savings are beginning to weigh on the demand.
The anticipated 0.4% suggests a still-healthy consumer backdrop, showing signs of normalization. Markets will interpret this as consistent with a soft-landing narrative: neither strong enough to renew inflation fears, nor weak enough to trigger concerns over a slowdown. The balance remains delicate, though.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
GBP: UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
April 22, 09:00 MT time
TThe UK inflation is expected to ease slightly from 3.0% to 2.8%, continuing its gradual descent toward the Bank of England’s target. The decline is likely driven by softer energy contributions and stabilizing goods prices, while services inflation remains relatively sticky.
This modest slowdown reinforces the view that the disinflation is progressing, though not evenly across the field. For policymakers, the data offers cautious reassurance but not a decisive signal to accelerate easing. The sterling may remain sensitive to any shift, particularly if core pressures prove more persistent than expected.
Affected instruments: GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURGBP, and other GBP-pairs.
USD: Initial Jobless Claims
April 23, 15:30 MT time
The initial jobless claims are expected to edge higher, indicating a slight softening in labor market conditions. While still historically low, the gradual uptick suggests that hiring momentum is cooling and layoffs are becoming marginally more frequent.
This does not yet point to a deterioration in employment, but rather a rebalancing after a prolonged period of tightness. For the Federal Reserve, such data supports a narrative of easing labor pressures without signalling recession risks. Markets will watch closely for any acceleration in this trend.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
