Market View: Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The US dollar stays firmer; XAUUSD remains under pressure; so does EURUSD, mildly declining; Bitcoin trades below $81,000 but looks relatively steady.

• The greenback gains strength ahead of the CPI report due later today. Should it surprise to the upside, the USD may receive another leg of support.
• Currently, gold likely requires either a genuinely soft inflation report or a more serious deterioration in geopolitical conditions to regain convincing upward momentum.
• The euro itself is not particularly weak in isolation; rather, the USD is simply stronger this morning due to the inflation backdrop and renewed geopolitical caution.
• The cryptocurrency market does not appear to be in retreat, yet neither is it aggressively pushing higher.

Today’s focus

FX snapshot

XAUUSD

In the meantime, the metal is no longer advancing automatically on geopolitical concerns alone.

EURUSD

If US CPI confirms a renewed acceleration in inflation, the pair may drift lower toward the 1.17200 level. Conversely, softer data could allow EURUSD to recover towards the 1.17700 area once again.

BTC

The crypto market seems inclined to wait for a clearer direction ahead of the inflation release. A stronger US dollar may continue to weigh modestly on Bitcoin, whilst softer inflation could rapidly revive an appetite for higher-risk assets.

Market sentiment

This morning’s session is no longer trading in a clear risk-on environment, but rather in a state of cautious hesitation. Investors appear indifferent toward positioning ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls release. The market views today’s data as the key event capable of reshaping short-term expectations.